Evidence that Coronavirus Lockdown was not necessary?

[published 29 April 2020 – last updated 20 October 2020]

Content on this page below:
• Covid-19 Situation in March 2020 • French study “Fear Versus Data”, (19 March) • Coronaviruses in the US and England are seasonal • Evidence of treatments for viral infections • Conclusion • Coronavirus deaths • WHO guidelines and mistakes • The price for lockdown & social isolation • Oxford SIR model • LINKS

Covid-19 Situation in March 2020

The COVID-19 (= SARS-CoV-2) situation in early 2020 was based on the following assumptions:

1. we have a new and more dangerous virus than other coronaviruses
2. we don’t know how fast and wide the virus spreads,
   when it will peak, and if and when it might naturally disappear
3. currently there is no treatment
4. as long as “we don’t know”, we should be rather safe than sorry and prepare for, and prevent the worst case scenario.

The good news is: NOW we KNOW.

COVID-19 (= SARS-CoV-2) causes a cytokine storm (or Cytokine release syndrome of overzealous immune responses, that generate so much cytokine secretion (hypercytokinesis), that it spills over into the lungs. The problem is the dysfunctional immune system, triggered by the virus.

Since 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK, as more information is available about low mortality rates.
“The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.”

Link to this chapter above ‘Covid-19 Situation in March 2020‘

Study Assessing the Covid-19 Danger

For the first time, a French study “Fear Versus Data“ (published 19 March) has examined coronavirus COVID-19 (= SARS-CoV-2) and found it is not more dangerous than other common coronaviruses.
“It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.”
“There does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses”
“Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.”
“There is little chance that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 could change this statistic significantly. Fear could have a larger impact than the virus itself; a case of suicide motivated by the fear of SARS-COV-2 has been reported in India” [from “Fear Versus Data”]

Link to this chapter above ‘Study Assessing the Covid-19 Danger‘

Epedemic Studies Show Seasonal Pattern

We do know, that coronaviruses in the US and England appear every year around December to March, and phase out around April.

From July 2014-June 2017 the US National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) reviewed real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) test results for four coronaviruses: HCoV-OC43, -229E, -NL63 and -HKU1. 117 laboratories reported 854,575 HCoV tests.

“The percentage of positive tests peaked during December – March each year.
2.2% were positive for HCoV-OC43, 1.0% for HCoV-NL63,
0.8% for HCoV-229E, and 0.6% for HCoV-HKU1.”

“CONCLUSIONS: Common HCoVs may have annual peaks of circulation in winter months in the US” and “a significant difference in age distribution was noted.” [from “Human coronavirus circulation in the United States 2014-2017“]

In this study, four different coronavirus strands were tested in four different regions in the US, all showing similar peaks:

Another study in Glasgow / UK over a period of nine years found a similar pattern of coronaviruses peaking from January to March

“We analyzed diagnostic data from 44,230 cases of respiratory illness that were tested for 11 taxonomically broad groups of respiratory viruses over 9 y… including CoV = human coronaviruses (229E, NL63, HKU1)”

Link to this chapter above ‘Epedemic Studies Show Seasonal Pattern‘

Covid-19 Treatments Known in March

Why did the UK Heath Minister repeatedly claim “There is no treatment for coronavirus”?

There is a multitude of evidence, that vitamin C successfully fights viral infections with very rare side effects:
on March the 4th, the Chinese Journal of Infectious Disease, hosted by the Medical Association of Shanghai, published “The expertise consensus regarding the total treatment of coronavirus in Shanghai 2019”. This document is of extraordinary importance, as it concentrates the Chinese experience in combating the virus: Antiviral treatment:
“You can try hydroxychloroquine sulfate or chloroquine phosphate, or Abidol for oral administration, interferon nebulization and inhalation”
Treatment of light and ordinary patients:
“Heparin anticoagulation and high-dose vitamin C are recommended… Vitamin C is administered at a dose of 50 to 100 mg / kg body weight per day… In the event of a “cytokine storm”, intermittent short veno-venuous hemofiltration (ISVVH) is recommended.”
Treatment for severe and critically ill patients:
“6. Prevention and treatment of cytokine storm: It is recommended to use large doses of vitamin C and unfractionated heparin. Large doses of vitamin C are injected intravenously at a dose of 100 to 200 mg / kg per day.”
“The combination of traditional Chinese and western medicine for the treatment of new coronavirus pneumonia can improve the synergistic effect.”

See also: “Coronavirus Coverup — Vitamin C Dramatic Help against Infection in China, South Korea — Why Aren’t We Told“
Biophysicist Virgiliu Gheorghe, on the topic of vitamin C:
“it looks like it was vitamin C that lead to stopping the epidemic in China.”

More details and studies about treatments with vitamin C & D
are in the article “We Need To Focus On The Immune System…”

The NHS and NICE only mention vitamin C use for scurvy, and declare: “Claims that vitamin C ameliorates colds or promotes wound healing have not been proven.”
Wikipedia states “Vitamin C is a water-soluble vitamin,^[22] … exhibits remarkably low acute toxicity.^[5] More than two to three grams may cause indigestion, particularly when taken on an empty stomach.”

Indian Authorities Propose Use of Homeopathy
The Scientist Magazine reports on the 7th February:
“The Indian government’s Ministry of AYUSH, which promotes alternative medicine systems in the country, released a health advisory on January 29 that advocates the use of homeopathy and traditional remedies, such as Indian systems of medicine, to ward off infections of the newly circulating 2019-nCoV coronavirus. This includes the use of a homeopathic preparation called Arsenicum album 30C and two drops of sesame oil in each nostril each morning for prevention, and Unani medicines (treatments based on the teachings of Hippocrates and Galen) to mitigate symptoms of coronavirus infection.“

New Coronavirus: All Eyes On India specifies:
“It has recommended one dose of Arsenicum album 30, daily in empty stomach for three days. The dose should be repeated after one month by following the same schedule in case Coronavirus infections prevail in the community.”

Can Chinese Medicine Be Used for Prevention of Corona Virus Disease?
A Review of Historical Classics, Research Evidence and Current Prevention Programs from 17 Februry states:
“The infection rate of H1N1 influenza in the CM group was significantly lower than the non-CM group.”
“The most frequently used herbs included Radix astragali (Huangqi), Radix glycyrrhizae (Gancao), Radix saposhnikoviae (Fangfeng), Rhizoma Atractylodis Macrocephalae (Baizhu), Lonicerae Japonicae Flos (Jinyinhua), and Fructus forsythia (Lianqiao).“
Conclusions: Based on historical records and human evidence of SARS and H1N1 influenza prevention, Chinese herbal formula could be an alternative approach for prevention of COVID-19 in high-risk population.”

As homeopathy usually has no side effects, the only criticism is, that using homeopathy might prevent people from getting a “proper” treatment.
As health officials claim “there is no treatment for coronavirus”, this risk is clearly not existant.

You will find many more covid-19 treatments which have emerged during and after the lockdown in the article “We Need To Focus On The Immune System…” like:
– ‘Covid Organics’, an  artemisia product containing quercimeritrin
– high selenium levels (brazil nuts)
– zink and Hydrochloroquine HCQ
– N-acetylcysteine – NAC raises glutathione,  inhibits hypercoagulation, breaks up blood clots and improves immune function
– Other and combined treatments: azithromycin, Bromhexine, Heparin, ivermectin and Doxycycline, also inhaled Budesonide.

Link to this chapter above ‘Covid-19 Treatments Known in March‘

Conclusion

The above scientific evidence from March 2020 shows, that COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 is not more dangerous than the usual yearly coronaviruses, and that coronaviruses disappear naturally around April.
We do have some safe, affordable and recommended treatments if needed.
Why do we bring down our society and economy and tell people to self isolate?

Link to this ‘Conclusion‘ above

Doubious Deaths from Coronavirus

Here is an example: a patient dies from a heart attack after a medical error (Iatrogenic injury). The underlying condition was obesity. A post mortem test finds the presence of a coronavirus. What will be written in the death certificate? A positive virus test result does not prove causality.
Most people die WITH the virus due to underlying conditions, including old age, but not BECAUSE of it.

We also need to consider, that while the media frequently publish dramatic cases, death usually happens quietly, unreported, and in much higher numbers due to other causes.

Link to this chapter above ‘Doubious Deaths from Coronavirus‘

Health authorities like the WHO have got it very wrong in the past:
In 2005, David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation, said the “range of deaths could be anything between five and 150 million” – and Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said “200 million people could die from bird flu.”
The final global death toll from 2003 to 2009 was only 292,
and no confirmed human deaths in the West from the avian flu.

Learning from the past? ABC News Friday 11 June 2010:
Was the swine flu a fake pandemic?
It’s a year since the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared a global pandemic of swine flu, triggering health emergencies across the planet. But instead of accolades, the WHO and authorities everywhere are facing an avalanche of disturbing questions about the handling of the swine flu, and the influence of vested interests.
To put the key question most crudely: was the world wrongly persuaded to believe it was in the grip of a ghastly and severe pandemic by decision-making bodies unduly influenced by pharmaceutical companies hoping to sell billions of dollars worth of vaccines and anti-viral drugs?
A report just out from the Council of Europe has come to some devastating conclusions. The declaration of a pandemic lead to a “waste of huge sums of public money”, a “distortion of priorities” in public health services, the “provocation of unjustified fear” and the “creation of health risks through vaccines and medications” that may not have been sufficiently tested

Link to this chapter above ‘WHO Guidelines and Mistakes‘

Lockdown Cure Worse Than The Disease?

The price for social isolation and lockdown:
“There is a growing body of scientific research demonstrating that social isolation has significant adverse health impacts on both the psychological and physiological health and well-being of individuals, as represented by the following 13 studies which show significant increases in mortality”
“More diverse social networks were associated with greater resistance to upper respiratory illness.”
“Separation from loved ones, the loss of freedom, uncertainty over disease status, and boredom can, on occasion, create dramatic effects. Suicide has been reported, substantial anger generated, and lawsuits brought  following the imposition of quarantine in previous outbreaks.”

The UK government based their lockdown decisions on models and predictions, and then claims we need to “prove” coronavirus is not dangerous any more.
The legal approach of “In dubio pro reo” (“in case of doubt for the defendant”) should be applied for coronavirus. We cannot wait, until science has proven it is not dangerous (which mostly results in “more studies and more tests are needed”).
Unless it is properly PROVEN the virus is dangerous way beyond normal, we need to get on with business as usual.

Link to this chapter above ‘Cure Worse Than The Disease?‘

Oxford SIR Model

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.  The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group from March 2020 indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest.

The Oxford study is based on what is known as a SIR “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. It takes into account, that the population is not homogeneous regarding how many contacts each individual has. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.
The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected.

Link to this chapter ‘SIR Model’ above

Chapters of this page above:
• Covid-19 Situation in March 2020 • French study “Fear Versus Data”, (19 March) • Coronaviruses in the US and England are seasonal • Evidence of treatments for viral infections • Conclusion • Coronavirus deaths • WHO guidelines and mistakes • The price for lockdown & social isolation • Oxford SIR model • LINKS

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Next articles:

We’ve got it all wrong fighting the virus

We need to focus on the immune system in the next virus season

Open Letter To Your Council Opposing Lockdown

What can I do?

Can The Law Save Us From Covid Politics?

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